The Fed’s Shift and Its Impact on the Financial Market

By: crypto insight|2025/12/02 21:00:06

Key Takeaways

The potential for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December saw a significant turnaround within a span of 11 days.
The market’s recent reaction highlights the influential role of the Federal Reserve’s communication strategies.
The S&P 500 Index experienced a notable surge, even amidst declines in major tech stocks like Nvidia.
Historical data indicates that a “Zweig Breadth Thrust” may signal continued market growth.

WEEX Crypto News, 2025-12-02 12:34:56

In the realm of financial markets, few elements wield as much power as the communication strategies of the Federal Reserve. The past few weeks have been a testament to this, as the potential for a rate cut in December saw a dramatic twist. Initially dismissed by the market, the possibility for a rate reduction resurfaced in a matter of days, reigniting investor interest, sparking significant volatility, and illustrating a broader narrative on investor behavior and market dynamics.

Fed Communication: A Driving Force

Just when the market had seemingly relinquished hopes for a December rate cut, the scenario swiftly altered. In a span of just 11 days, the Federal Reserve managed to eliminate the expectations of a rate cut in December. However, within a single day, the probability resurged, underscoring the agile nature of market perception.

This swift shift can be attributed to Federal Reserve officials who revoked their hawkish stances from previous communications. As of late, the probability for a rate cut has surged to an estimated 102%—a marked increase from prior estimates, which questions the effectiveness and clarity of the Federal Reserve’s communication strategies. Such unexpected twists have the power to drastically alter market environments, posing challenges for traders and investors who must navigate these waters with both caution and adaptability.

Market Reaction: An Insight into Investor Behavior

The ongoing market reaction reveals more than just how investors respond to the Fed’s cues—it highlights the underlying sentiment and expectations that drive market movements. For instance, the recent rally in equities was not merely an oversold bounce; it was driven by strong market participation. A detailed examination of the equal-weighted S&P 500 Index and the Russell 2000 Index illustrates a five-day upward trajectory that is the most pronounced since April.

This is a significant aspect of market behavior: large movements tend to be accompanied by notable shifts in investor sentiment. Notably, the demand surged at critical levels, suggesting that the timing of this rebound aligns seamlessly with market conditions.

Despite the drag from declining Nvidia stock prices, the S&P 500 showcased its resilience, indicating that the market’s strength isn’t solely concentrated in the tech sector. More broadly, the non-tech segment of the S&P 500 rebounded from its deepest pullback since July, attaining new highs despite recent challenges. This resilience and performance variance reveal the market’s robustness in the face of fluctuating tech stock valuations.

Understanding the “Shake ‘n Bake” Reversal

The market’s behavior in recent weeks mirrors a textbook “Shake ‘n Bake” reversal. In this scenario, shorts prematurely anticipated a downturn only to be pitted against a tide of strong market momentum. Weak investors were displaced, making way for a potent, sustained rally—a phase of cleansing followed by robust growth.

Strengthening the market’s narrative are trends seen in sectors closely tied to the real economy. Stocks in areas such as regional banking and retail, previously appearing poised for breakdown, have gained traction. Remarkably, markets have rebounded above VWAP levels—signaling an entry into a healthier phase of growth.

Across an array of sectors—including homebuilders, equal-weighted consumer discretionary stocks, and industrial sectors—similar patterns have unfolded. Such broadly shared victories indicate a market regaining breath and vigor.

The Significance of Market Breadth

The current rise in market breadth (the number of stocks advancing versus those declining) underscores a radical shift. With market participation broadening, it’s clear that investor appetite for risk is on an upswing. Several key indicators point toward a reversal: the “Zweig Breadth Thrust” for one, signifies broader market engagement shifting from “nobody buying” to “everybody buying”.

The historical significance of these indicators cannot be understated. When appearing within a one-month span, “breadth thrusts” have historically preceded substantive market upswings—averaging S&P 500 growth of 26% over the following year. On the 12th of May, a recent example of this occurred, following which the S&P 500 rose by 17%.

In essence, these breadth indicators constitute key tools in an investor’s arsenal, providing reliable signals for anticipating market trends and shifts.

The Stability and Strength of the Current Rally

From a comprehensive perspective, current market conditions signal a healthier and more stable rally, vastly surpassing the one observed after the October lows. At that time, sparse market participation undermined the S&P 500’s trajectory. Fast forward to today, and the situation is markedly different—more stocks are climbing within a five-day period than at any point in the past year. Just days prior, this metric had plummeted to its lowest in four months.

This noteworthy rally mirrors a similar surge observed in November 2023, post a 10% market correction. This prelude was subsequently followed by a powerful breadth thrust that solidified market momentum.

Though one cannot dismiss previously weakened market breadth, these recent developments indicate a significant shift. Despite adversity, the market’s capacity for rebound has proven notable. The reemergence of market breadth also implies that the earlier slump in participation was not indicative of a long-term downtrend. The key takeaway? A robust, broad base of support can galvanize future rallies—a vital indicator that participants should remain attuned to.

Evaluating Long-Term Market Participation

A holistic evaluation of market breadth should consider various metrics. Traditional breadth indicators, such as stocks trading above their 200-day moving averages and those hitting 52-week highs, effectively offer point-in-time assessments. Still, these metrics can be impaired by sharp sell-offs, often failing to capture broader, consistent market engagement.

A more sustainable approach entails evaluating the mean number of advancing stocks daily over a longer trajectory, say a rolling 252-day average. Current evaluations highlight a strong bull market in 2025, boasting the highest daily number of advancing stocks since 2021.

Interestingly, this year-long average remains noticeably beneath the prevailing rate for 2025—a reflection of lower participation seen in December, when only 204 stocks advanced daily. Yet, by stepping back and adopting a longer-term vantage, one observes fascinating trends. While large-cap stocks undeniably garner attention, the broader participation signals a healthier, more inclusive market environment.

Lessons from the Past and Considerations for the Future

Reflecting on multi-decade data from the S&P 500, historical context enriches current market understanding. Contrary to prevalent beliefs, an examination of 252-day averages reveals that market participation has, in fact, increased rather than diminished. The emergence of mega-cap stocks somewhat skews public perception, but on an aggregate level, participation is on an upswing. In particular, the swell in daily advancing stocks in 2025 revives experiences from years past.

In sharp contrast, valued historical contrasts are seen during narrower market cycles, such as the lead-up to the dot-com bubble burst in March 2000, when participation dwindled.

To distill these insights: today’s market, unlike the past, is characterized by wider engagement. While large corporations continue to significantly influence index returns—an inescapable fact given their sheer scale—a notable difference is the sheer number of stocks actively participating in the rally.

The takeaway from this analysis is clear: broad participation signifies market health; however, it does not necessarily equate to an even distribution of contribution. Large entities will continue to dominate, yet the abundance of actively contributing stocks currently suggests a vibrant, robust market environment.

Conclusion

Collectively, these insights underscore a compelling narrative: the financial market is presently poised at an advantageous juncture, with factors such as Federal Reserve strategies, participation breadth, and historical precedents playing pivotal roles. Broad-based participation invariably signals a healthier market dynamic, even as concentrated returns reflect the structure of market indices.

Ensuring a pulse on these multifaceted dimensions can furnish invaluable insights for any investor navigating today’s complex financial ecosystem.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the significance of Federal Reserve communication on markets?

Federal Reserve communication strategies significantly influence market expectations and behaviors. Changes in tone or policy signals can pivot market sentiments dramatically, affecting rates, liquidity, and investor actions.

How does market breadth influence market health assessments?

Market breadth offers insights into the extent of participation within a trend. A broader market breadth indicates more stocks contributing to a given movement, suggesting stronger market health and momentum.

What is a “Shake ‘n Bake” market reversal?

A “Shake ‘n Bake” market reversal occurs when market sentiment changes abruptly, catching short sellers off guard and leading to strong buying momentum that overrides previous bearish trends.

How do historical breadth thrusts impact future market performance?

Historically, breadth thrusts signal shifts from weak to strong participation phases. These events have reliably foretold extended bullish runs, with average subsequent year returns proving notably positive.

Why is long-term participation measurement crucial?

While short-term indicators can be volatile and skewed by immediate events, long-term measures like rolling averages offer a holistic view of market health, capturing consistent participation trends over time.

Foreword: Today, the People's Bank of China's website published the "Notice of the People's Bank of China, National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Public Security, State Administration for Market Regulation, China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, China Securities Regulatory Commission, State Administration of Foreign Exchange on Further Preventing and Dealing with Risks Related to Virtual Currency and Others (Yinfa [2026] No. 42)", the latest regulatory requirements from the eight departments including the central bank, which are basically consistent with the regulatory requirements of recent years. The main focus of the regulation is on speculative activities such as virtual currency trading, exchanges, ICOs, overseas platform services, and this time, regulatory oversight of RWA has been added, explicitly prohibiting RWA tokenization, stablecoins (especially those pegged to the RMB). The following is the full text:

To the people's governments of all provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities directly under the Central Government, the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps:

Recently, there have been speculative activities related to virtual currency and Real-World Assets (RWA) tokenization, disrupting the economic and financial order and jeopardizing the property security of the people. In order to further prevent and address the risks related to virtual currency and Real-World Assets tokenization, effectively safeguard national security and social stability, in accordance with the "Law of the People's Republic of China on the People's Bank of China," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Commercial Banks," "Securities Law of the People's Republic of China," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Securities Investment Funds," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Futures and Derivatives," "Cybersecurity Law of the People's Republic of China," "Regulations of the People's Republic of China on the Administration of Renminbi," "Regulations on Prevention and Disposal of Illegal Fundraising," "Regulations of the People's Republic of China on Foreign Exchange Administration," "Telecommunications Regulations of the People's Republic of China," and other provisions, after reaching consensus with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, and with the approval of the State Council, the relevant matters are notified as follows:

I. Clarify the essential attributes of virtual currency, Real-World Assets tokenization, and related business activities

(I) Virtual currency does not possess the legal status equivalent to fiat currency. Virtual currencies such as Bitcoin, Ether, Tether, etc., have the main characteristics of being issued by non-monetary authorities, using encryption technology and distributed ledger or similar technology, existing in digital form, etc. They do not have legal tender status, should not and cannot be circulated and used as currency in the market.

The business activities related to virtual currency are classified as illegal financial activities. The exchange of fiat currency and virtual currency within the territory, exchange of virtual currencies, acting as a central counterparty in buying and selling virtual currencies, providing information intermediary and pricing services for virtual currency transactions, token issuance financing, and trading of virtual currency-related financial products, etc., fall under illegal financial activities, such as suspected illegal issuance of token vouchers, unauthorized public issuance of securities, illegal operation of securities and futures business, illegal fundraising, etc., are strictly prohibited across the board and resolutely banned in accordance with the law. Overseas entities and individuals are not allowed to provide virtual currency-related services to domestic entities in any form.

A stablecoin pegged to a fiat currency indirectly fulfills some functions of the fiat currency in circulation. Without the consent of relevant authorities in accordance with the law and regulations, any domestic or foreign entity or individual is not allowed to issue a RMB-pegged stablecoin overseas.

（II）Tokenization of Real-World Assets refers to the use of encryption technology and distributed ledger or similar technologies to transform ownership rights, income rights, etc., of assets into tokens (tokens) or other interests or bond certificates with token (token) characteristics, and carry out issuance and trading activities.

Engaging in the tokenization of real-world assets domestically, as well as providing related intermediary, information technology services, etc., which are suspected of illegal issuance of token vouchers, unauthorized public offering of securities, illegal operation of securities and futures business, illegal fundraising, and other illegal financial activities, shall be prohibited; except for relevant business activities carried out with the approval of the competent authorities in accordance with the law and regulations and relying on specific financial infrastructures. Overseas entities and individuals are not allowed to illegally provide services related to the tokenization of real-world assets to domestic entities in any form.

II. Sound Work Mechanism

(III) Inter-agency Coordination. The People's Bank of China, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other departments, will improve the work mechanism, strengthen coordination with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, coordinate efforts, and overall guide regions to carry out risk prevention and disposal of virtual currency-related illegal financial activities.

The China Securities Regulatory Commission, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, the People's Bank of China, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other departments, will improve the work mechanism, strengthen coordination with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, coordinate efforts, and overall guide regions to carry out risk prevention and disposal of illegal financial activities related to the tokenization of real-world assets.

(IV) Strengthening Local Implementation. The people's governments at the provincial level are overall responsible for the prevention and disposal of risks related to virtual currencies and the tokenization of real-world assets in their respective administrative regions. The specific leading department is the local financial regulatory department, with participation from branches and dispatched institutions of the State Council's financial regulatory department, telecommunications regulators, public security, market supervision, and other departments, in coordination with cyberspace departments, courts, and procuratorates, to improve the normalization of the work mechanism, effectively connect with the relevant work mechanisms of central departments, form a cooperative and coordinated working pattern between central and local governments, effectively prevent and properly handle risks related to virtual currencies and the tokenization of real-world assets, and maintain economic and financial order and social stability.

III. Strengthened Risk Monitoring, Prevention, and Disposal

(5) Enhanced Risk Monitoring. The People's Bank of China, China Securities Regulatory Commission, National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Public Security, State Administration of Foreign Exchange, Cyberspace Administration of China, and other departments continue to improve monitoring techniques and system support, enhance cross-departmental data analysis and sharing, establish sound information sharing and cross-validation mechanisms, promptly grasp the risk situation of activities related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization. Local governments at all levels give full play to the role of local monitoring and early warning mechanisms. Local financial regulatory authorities, together with branches and agencies of the State Council's financial regulatory authorities, as well as departments of cyberspace and public security, ensure effective connection between online monitoring, offline investigation, and fund tracking, efficiently and accurately identify activities related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization, promptly share risk information, improve early warning information dissemination, verification, and rapid response mechanisms.

(6) Strengthened Oversight of Financial Institutions, Intermediaries, and Technology Service Providers. Financial institutions (including non-bank payment institutions) are prohibited from providing account opening, fund transfer, and clearing services for virtual currency-related business activities, issuing and selling financial products related to virtual currency, including virtual currency and related financial products in the scope of collateral, conducting insurance business related to virtual currency, or including virtual currency in the scope of insurance liability. Financial institutions (including non-bank payment institutions) are prohibited from providing custody, clearing, and settlement services for unauthorized real-world asset tokenization-related business and related financial products. Relevant intermediary institutions and information technology service providers are prohibited from providing intermediary, technical, or other services for unauthorized real-world asset tokenization-related businesses and related financial products.

(7) Enhanced Management of Internet Information Content and Access. Internet enterprises are prohibited from providing online business venues, commercial displays, marketing, advertising, or paid traffic diversion services for virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization-related business activities. Upon discovering clues of illegal activities, they should promptly report to relevant departments and provide technical support and assistance for related investigations and inquiries. Based on the clues transferred by the financial regulatory authorities, the cyberspace administration, telecommunications authorities, and public security departments should promptly close and deal with websites, mobile applications (including mini-programs), and public accounts engaged in virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization-related business activities in accordance with the law.

(8) Strengthened Entity Registration and Advertisement Management. Market supervision departments strengthen entity registration and management, and enterprise and individual business registrations must not contain terms such as "virtual currency," "virtual asset," "cryptocurrency," "crypto asset," "stablecoin," "real-world asset tokenization," or "RWA" in their names or business scopes. Market supervision departments, together with financial regulatory authorities, legally enhance the supervision of advertisements related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization, promptly investigating and handling relevant illegal advertisements.

（IX） Continued Rectification of Virtual Currency Mining Activities. The National Development and Reform Commission, together with relevant departments, strictly controls virtual currency mining activities, continuously promotes the rectification of virtual currency mining activities. The people's governments of various provinces take overall responsibility for the rectification of "mining" within their respective administrative regions. In accordance with the requirements of the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments in the "Notice on the Rectification of Virtual Currency Mining Activities" (NDRC Energy-saving Building [2021] No. 1283) and the provisions of the "Guidance Catalog for Industrial Structure Adjustment (2024 Edition)," a comprehensive review, investigation, and closure of existing virtual currency mining projects are conducted, new mining projects are strictly prohibited, and mining machine production enterprises are strictly prohibited from providing mining machine sales and other services within the country.

（X） Severe Crackdown on Related Illegal Financial Activities. Upon discovering clues to illegal financial activities related to virtual currency and the tokenization of real-world assets, local financial regulatory authorities, branches of the State Council's financial regulatory authorities, and other relevant departments promptly investigate, determine, and properly handle the issues in accordance with the law, and seriously hold the relevant entities and individuals legally responsible. Those suspected of crimes are transferred to the judicial authorities for processing according to the law.

（XI） Severe Crackdown on Related Illegal and Criminal Activities. The Ministry of Public Security, the People's Bank of China, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, as well as judicial and procuratorial organs, in accordance with their respective responsibilities, rigorously crack down on illegal and criminal activities related to virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, such as fraud, money laundering, illegal business operations, pyramid schemes, illegal fundraising, and other illegal and criminal activities carried out under the guise of virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, etc.

（XII） Strengthen Industry Self-discipline. Relevant industry associations should enhance membership management and policy advocacy, based on their own responsibilities, advocate and urge member units to resist illegal financial activities related to virtual currency and the tokenization of real-world assets. Member units that violate regulatory policies and industry self-discipline rules are to be disciplined in accordance with relevant self-regulatory management regulations. By leveraging various industry infrastructure, conduct risk monitoring related to virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, and promptly transfer issue clues to relevant departments.

IV. Strict Supervision of Domestic Entities Engaging in Overseas Business Activities

（XIII） Without the approval of relevant departments in accordance with the law and regulations, domestic entities and foreign entities controlled by them may not issue virtual currency overseas.

（XIV） Domestic entities engaging directly or indirectly in overseas external debt-based tokenization of real-world assets, or conducting asset securitization activities abroad based on domestic ownership rights, income rights, etc. (hereinafter referred to as domestic equity), should be strictly regulated in accordance with the principles of "same business, same risk, same rules." The National Development and Reform Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other relevant departments regulate it according to their respective responsibilities. For other forms of overseas real-world asset tokenization activities based on domestic equity by domestic entities, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, together with relevant departments, supervise according to their division of responsibilities. Without the consent and filing of relevant departments, no unit or individual may engage in the above-mentioned business.

(15) Overseas subsidiaries and branches of domestic financial institutions providing Real World Asset Tokenization-related services overseas shall do so legally and prudently. They shall have professional personnel and systems in place to effectively mitigate business risks, strictly implement customer onboarding, suitability management, anti-money laundering requirements, and incorporate them into the domestic financial institutions' compliance and risk management system. Intermediaries and information technology service providers offering Real World Asset Tokenization services abroad based on domestic equity or conducting Real World Asset Tokenization business in the form of overseas debt for domestic entities directly or indirectly venturing abroad must strictly comply with relevant laws and regulations. They should establish and improve relevant compliance and internal control systems in accordance with relevant normative requirements, strengthen business and risk control, and report the business developments to the relevant regulatory authorities for approval or filing.

V. Strengthen Organizational Implementation

(16) Strengthen organizational leadership and overall coordination. All departments and regions should attach great importance to the prevention of risks related to virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization, strengthen organizational leadership, clarify work responsibilities, form a long-term effective working mechanism with centralized coordination, local implementation, and shared responsibilities, maintain high pressure, dynamically monitor risks, effectively prevent and mitigate risks in an orderly and efficient manner, legally protect the property security of the people, and make every effort to maintain economic and financial order and social stability.

(17) Widely carry out publicity and education. All departments, regions, and industry associations should make full use of various media and other communication channels to disseminate information through legal and policy interpretation, analysis of typical cases, and education on investment risks, etc. They should promote the illegality and harm of virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization-related businesses and their manifestations, fully alert to potential risks and hidden dangers, and enhance public awareness and identification capabilities for risk prevention.

VI. Legal Responsibility

(18) Engaging in illegal financial activities related to virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization in violation of this notice, as well as providing services for virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization-related businesses, shall be punished in accordance with relevant regulations. If it constitutes a crime, criminal liability shall be pursued according to the law. For domestic entities and individuals who knowingly or should have known that overseas entities illegally provided virtual currency or Real World Asset Tokenization-related services to domestic entities and still assisted them, relevant responsibilities shall be pursued according to the law. If it constitutes a crime, criminal liability shall be pursued according to the law.

(19) If any unit or individual invests in virtual currencies, Real World Asset Tokens, and related financial products against public order and good customs, the relevant civil legal actions shall be invalid, and any resulting losses shall be borne by them. If there are suspicions of disrupting financial order and jeopardizing financial security, the relevant departments shall deal with them according to the law.

This notice shall enter into force upon the date of its issuance. The People's Bank of China and ten other departments' "Notice on Further Preventing and Dealing with the Risks of Virtual Currency Trading Speculation" (Yinfa [2021] No. 237) is hereby repealed.

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