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Raoul Pal attempts to replay "1011": Top CEX forced to liquidate, followed by ongoing sell-off leading to market weakness
BlockBeats News, February 1st, Real Vision co-founder and CEO Raoul Pal stated in a podcast this week that, according to the global liquidity model, Bitcoin's price should now be around $140,000. However, the "1011" event caused the cryptocurrency to underperform compared to the stock market and gold. Raoul Pal in the video attempted to review the "1011" event process as follows:
There was a significant macro shock on that day (Trump's tariff policy), leading to a collective liquidation of high leverage positions. At the peak of the most intense cascade of liquidations, Binance's API interface briefly went down, causing professional market makers to be unable to place orders normally, provide liquidity, or hedge risks. A chain reaction followed, with liquidation continuing to amplify, forcing top-tier CEXs to step in with their balance sheets to prevent a system-wide collapse.
Raoul expects that during the event, CEXs passively absorbed a large amount of assets (possibly around $10 billion). The main reason for the market's subsequent long-term weakness is that the CEXs that stepped in then began algorithmically selling off inventory gradually at the U.S. stock market's opening time each day.
Raoul expects the current round of selling pressure "digestion period" to be largely completed by the end of February and believes that after the selling pressure is cleared, Bitcoin will quickly rebound, reaching $140,000. Furthermore, Raoul believes the Strategy's debt risk is manageable, and Saylor has cleaned up the balance sheet through debt issuance/equity.
However, regarding the speculation above, CZ publicly responded in Space on Friday that "the 1011 crash was not caused by Binance's system or operational issues, Binance is under regulation and does not have the conditions to conduct any irregular operations".
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