High Fees, Can't Beat the Market Even After Paying 10x More, What Exactly Are Top Hedge Funds Selling?

By: blockbeats|2025/12/24 12:00:02
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Original Article Title: Why People Are (Mostly) Wrong About Hedge Fund Returns
Original Article Author: @systematicls, Macro Analyst
Original Article Translation: AididiaoJP, Foresight News

Preface

Many people criticize hedge funds for their low returns, but they are actually making a conceptual mistake. Saying that hedge funds "can't beat the market" is like comparing the speed of a boat and a car, then complaining that the boat is slow on the highway—it's completely misidentifying the target.

Buying the S&P 500 index (i.e., the market factor) costs about 0.09% annually. The top hedge funds have annual fees in the range of 5%-8% (2/20 fee structure plus various expenses). The cost difference is up to 50-80 times.

If they were offering the same thing, then the investors would be foolish. But what they offer is indeed different, and the institutional investors putting in billions are not fools.

What they are buying is something that cannot be replicated with money: factor neutrality, high Sharpe ratio, large-scale and uncorrelated sources of returns. Once you understand this, you will understand the rationale behind the high fees and will no longer compare hedge funds to index funds.

Where Does the Demand Come From?

A common criticism is: "The S&P rose by 17% this year, but the hedge fund only earned 9.3%." This criticism may hold true for many hedge funds, as many are simply repackaged market fluctuations.

However, this completely misunderstands the product logic of top funds like Citadel/Millennium/Point72. Their goal is not to beat the market; that is not their job. It is unreasonable to compare a fund designed to be uncorrelated to a 100% stock benchmark, just as it is absurd to blame an insurance policy for not making money.

When you are managing a trillion-dollar pension fund and $600 billion is already in stocks, you are not lacking stock exposure; in fact, you have too much stock. What you truly need is something that can rise when the stock market falls (or at least not fall with it). You need risk diversification. More precisely, you want something that can rise regardless of the market conditions, outperforming cash.

Sound great, doesn't it? Feels like it would be expensive, right? Absolutely! True risk diversification is extremely costly because it is extremely rare!

Who Are the Competitors

The S&P 500's long-term Sharpe ratio is around 0.35-0.5, meaning that for every 1% fluctuation, you get a 0.35%-0.5% excess return. The Sharpe ratio of top global hedge funds is around 1.5-2.5 or even higher.

What we are talking about is maintaining a Sharpe ratio around 2 for decades, not only achieving returns unrelated to market fluctuations but also much lower volatility. These companies have very small drawdowns and quick recoveries.

Hedge funds are not a more expensive version of the same product but a completely different category. Top hedge funds offer two advantages that ETF/index products do not:

· Factor neutrality

· High Sharpe ratio

Why Factor Neutrality Matters

To understand the value of factor neutrality, look at this formula:

Return = Alpha + Beta × Factor Return + Random Error

· Alpha = Return from skill

· Beta = Exposure to systematic factors

· Factor Return = Return of market factors

· Random Error = Individual differences

The beta part can be replicated with publicly available factor portfolios. For replicable things, only replication costs should be paid. Replication is very cheap: market factor 0.03%-0.09%, style factors 0.15%-0.3%.

Alpha is what remains after deducting all replicable parts. By definition, alpha cannot be synthesized through factor exposure. This irreproducibility is the basis of premium.

Key insight: Beta is cheap because factor returns are public goods, with unlimited capacity. If the market goes up by 10%, all holders earn 10%, with no exclusivity. The S&P's return will not decrease because more people buy.

Alpha is expensive because it is a zero-sum game and has limited capacity. For every $1 earned in alpha, someone loses $1. The inefficiency of the market that generates alpha is limited in quantity and will disappear with capital inflows. A strategy with a Sharpe ratio of 2 at $100 million scale may only be left with 0.8 at $100 billion scale, as large-scale trading itself will affect prices.

Factor neutrality (where all systematic exposures' beta ≈ 0) is the only truly unreplicable source of returns. This is the rational basis for premium, not the return itself, but the inability to obtain such returns in other ways.

The Magic of High Sharpe Ratios

The high Sharpe ratio's compounding effect becomes apparent over time. A combination of two expected returns, both at 7%, with different volatilities (16% vs. 10%), shows vastly different outcomes after 20 years. The low-volatility combination halves the probability of loss, offering much better downside protection.

For institutions requiring stable income, this reliability is worth paying for.

Volatility not only affects the investment experience but also mathematically erodes long-term returns:

Geometric Mean Return ≈ Arithmetic Mean Return - (Volatility²/2)

This is called "volatility drag," where a high-volatility portfolio inevitably lags behind a low-volatility portfolio in the long run, even if the expected returns are the same.

High Fees, Can't Beat the Market Even After Paying 10x More, What Exactly Are Top Hedge Funds Selling?

The low-volatility combination eventually earns an additional $48 million, with wealth appreciation 16% higher, despite the "expected return" being the same. This is not a risk preference issue but a mathematical fact: volatility erodes wealth over time.

Think Like an Institutional Investor

Why are institutions willing to pay a 100x premium for a factor-neutral fund? Just look at the portfolio math, and you'll understand.

Consider a standard portfolio: 60% stocks + 40% bonds. Expected return 5%, volatility 10%, Sharpe ratio 0.5. Not bad, but the stock risk is high.

Adding a 20% factor-neutral hedge fund: expected return 10%, volatility 5%, Sharpe ratio 2.0, uncorrelated with stocks and bonds. New combination: 48% stocks + 32% bonds + 20% hedge fund.

Result: Expected return increases to 6%, volatility decreases to 8%, Sharpe ratio rises to 0.75 (a 50% improvement).

And this is just one fund. If you could find 2, 3 uncorrelated top funds? Now you understand why such assets are so valuable.

Institutions rush to invest in top-tier funds not because they don't know index funds are cheap but because they understand the mathematics at the portfolio level. They are not comparing fees but the portfolio efficiency fees bring.

How to Pick Funds Like an Institution

Suppose you want to find a product similar to a top-tier hedge fund, can't access Citadel/Millennium/Point72, but have plenty of time to research. How do you screen?

Focus on these key points:

Look at long-term factor exposure: Not just current, look at rolling data for several years. A truly factor-neutral fund should have exposure to market, industry, and style factors consistently close to zero. If the market beta fluctuates around 0.3, that's factor timing—potentially useful but not the product you want to buy.

Stress Testing: Everyone looks uncorrelated during a bull market. The real test is during a crisis: 2008, early 2020, 2022. If drawdowns align with the overall market, it's not true neutrality; it hides beta exposure.

Focus on Long-Term Sharpe Ratios: Short-term high Sharpe ratios may be luck-driven, but sustaining a high Sharpe ratio in the long term is unlikely to be purely luck. The Sharpe ratio is fundamentally a measure of return's statistical significance.

Abandon the Replication Idea: Factor ETFs can provide exposure to factors like value, momentum, with an annual cost of 0.15%-0.5%. However, this is not the same product. Factor ETFs are correlated to factors, whereas neutral funds are uncorrelated. This correlation structure is key. You need to seek actively managed products or alpha strategies.

Understanding Scarcity

After conducting the above research, you may realize that the number of products that fully meet all criteria is zero!

On a serious note, you may find close matches, but most likely they won't be able to accommodate institutional scale. For sovereign wealth funds managing trillions, investments of a few billion are insignificant.

Ultimately, you will understand that very few companies can maintain a Sharpe ratio above 2 at a scale of over 500 billion across multiple cycles. This is extremely challenging. Factor neutrality + large scale + long-term stability, having all three is extremely rare. This scarcity makes the premium reasonable for those who can invest.

Final Thoughts

Paying a 50-100x premium for a top-tier factor-neutral hedge fund has robust portfolio math behind it, which critics often overlook. Institutional investors are not fools; the real issue might be that too many funds charge top fees but only provide expensive beta that can be obtained for 0.15% annually.

(Note: Fund reports already show net returns after all fees have been deducted, so no additional deductions are needed.)

Original Source

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China's Central Bank and Eight Other Departments' Latest Regulatory Focus: Key Attention to RWA Tokenized Asset Risk


Foreword: Today, the People's Bank of China's website published the "Notice of the People's Bank of China, National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Public Security, State Administration for Market Regulation, China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, China Securities Regulatory Commission, State Administration of Foreign Exchange on Further Preventing and Dealing with Risks Related to Virtual Currency and Others (Yinfa [2026] No. 42)", the latest regulatory requirements from the eight departments including the central bank, which are basically consistent with the regulatory requirements of recent years. The main focus of the regulation is on speculative activities such as virtual currency trading, exchanges, ICOs, overseas platform services, and this time, regulatory oversight of RWA has been added, explicitly prohibiting RWA tokenization, stablecoins (especially those pegged to the RMB). The following is the full text:


To the people's governments of all provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities directly under the Central Government, the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps:


  Recently, there have been speculative activities related to virtual currency and Real-World Assets (RWA) tokenization, disrupting the economic and financial order and jeopardizing the property security of the people. In order to further prevent and address the risks related to virtual currency and Real-World Assets tokenization, effectively safeguard national security and social stability, in accordance with the "Law of the People's Republic of China on the People's Bank of China," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Commercial Banks," "Securities Law of the People's Republic of China," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Securities Investment Funds," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Futures and Derivatives," "Cybersecurity Law of the People's Republic of China," "Regulations of the People's Republic of China on the Administration of Renminbi," "Regulations on Prevention and Disposal of Illegal Fundraising," "Regulations of the People's Republic of China on Foreign Exchange Administration," "Telecommunications Regulations of the People's Republic of China," and other provisions, after reaching consensus with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, and with the approval of the State Council, the relevant matters are notified as follows:


  I. Clarify the essential attributes of virtual currency, Real-World Assets tokenization, and related business activities


  (I) Virtual currency does not possess the legal status equivalent to fiat currency. Virtual currencies such as Bitcoin, Ether, Tether, etc., have the main characteristics of being issued by non-monetary authorities, using encryption technology and distributed ledger or similar technology, existing in digital form, etc. They do not have legal tender status, should not and cannot be circulated and used as currency in the market.


  The business activities related to virtual currency are classified as illegal financial activities. The exchange of fiat currency and virtual currency within the territory, exchange of virtual currencies, acting as a central counterparty in buying and selling virtual currencies, providing information intermediary and pricing services for virtual currency transactions, token issuance financing, and trading of virtual currency-related financial products, etc., fall under illegal financial activities, such as suspected illegal issuance of token vouchers, unauthorized public issuance of securities, illegal operation of securities and futures business, illegal fundraising, etc., are strictly prohibited across the board and resolutely banned in accordance with the law. Overseas entities and individuals are not allowed to provide virtual currency-related services to domestic entities in any form.


  A stablecoin pegged to a fiat currency indirectly fulfills some functions of the fiat currency in circulation. Without the consent of relevant authorities in accordance with the law and regulations, any domestic or foreign entity or individual is not allowed to issue a RMB-pegged stablecoin overseas.


(II)Tokenization of Real-World Assets refers to the use of encryption technology and distributed ledger or similar technologies to transform ownership rights, income rights, etc., of assets into tokens (tokens) or other interests or bond certificates with token (token) characteristics, and carry out issuance and trading activities.


  Engaging in the tokenization of real-world assets domestically, as well as providing related intermediary, information technology services, etc., which are suspected of illegal issuance of token vouchers, unauthorized public offering of securities, illegal operation of securities and futures business, illegal fundraising, and other illegal financial activities, shall be prohibited; except for relevant business activities carried out with the approval of the competent authorities in accordance with the law and regulations and relying on specific financial infrastructures. Overseas entities and individuals are not allowed to illegally provide services related to the tokenization of real-world assets to domestic entities in any form.


  II. Sound Work Mechanism


  (III) Inter-agency Coordination. The People's Bank of China, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other departments, will improve the work mechanism, strengthen coordination with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, coordinate efforts, and overall guide regions to carry out risk prevention and disposal of virtual currency-related illegal financial activities.


  The China Securities Regulatory Commission, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, the People's Bank of China, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other departments, will improve the work mechanism, strengthen coordination with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, coordinate efforts, and overall guide regions to carry out risk prevention and disposal of illegal financial activities related to the tokenization of real-world assets.


  (IV) Strengthening Local Implementation. The people's governments at the provincial level are overall responsible for the prevention and disposal of risks related to virtual currencies and the tokenization of real-world assets in their respective administrative regions. The specific leading department is the local financial regulatory department, with participation from branches and dispatched institutions of the State Council's financial regulatory department, telecommunications regulators, public security, market supervision, and other departments, in coordination with cyberspace departments, courts, and procuratorates, to improve the normalization of the work mechanism, effectively connect with the relevant work mechanisms of central departments, form a cooperative and coordinated working pattern between central and local governments, effectively prevent and properly handle risks related to virtual currencies and the tokenization of real-world assets, and maintain economic and financial order and social stability.


  III. Strengthened Risk Monitoring, Prevention, and Disposal


  (5) Enhanced Risk Monitoring. The People's Bank of China, China Securities Regulatory Commission, National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Public Security, State Administration of Foreign Exchange, Cyberspace Administration of China, and other departments continue to improve monitoring techniques and system support, enhance cross-departmental data analysis and sharing, establish sound information sharing and cross-validation mechanisms, promptly grasp the risk situation of activities related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization. Local governments at all levels give full play to the role of local monitoring and early warning mechanisms. Local financial regulatory authorities, together with branches and agencies of the State Council's financial regulatory authorities, as well as departments of cyberspace and public security, ensure effective connection between online monitoring, offline investigation, and fund tracking, efficiently and accurately identify activities related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization, promptly share risk information, improve early warning information dissemination, verification, and rapid response mechanisms.


  (6) Strengthened Oversight of Financial Institutions, Intermediaries, and Technology Service Providers. Financial institutions (including non-bank payment institutions) are prohibited from providing account opening, fund transfer, and clearing services for virtual currency-related business activities, issuing and selling financial products related to virtual currency, including virtual currency and related financial products in the scope of collateral, conducting insurance business related to virtual currency, or including virtual currency in the scope of insurance liability. Financial institutions (including non-bank payment institutions) are prohibited from providing custody, clearing, and settlement services for unauthorized real-world asset tokenization-related business and related financial products. Relevant intermediary institutions and information technology service providers are prohibited from providing intermediary, technical, or other services for unauthorized real-world asset tokenization-related businesses and related financial products.


  (7) Enhanced Management of Internet Information Content and Access. Internet enterprises are prohibited from providing online business venues, commercial displays, marketing, advertising, or paid traffic diversion services for virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization-related business activities. Upon discovering clues of illegal activities, they should promptly report to relevant departments and provide technical support and assistance for related investigations and inquiries. Based on the clues transferred by the financial regulatory authorities, the cyberspace administration, telecommunications authorities, and public security departments should promptly close and deal with websites, mobile applications (including mini-programs), and public accounts engaged in virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization-related business activities in accordance with the law.


  (8) Strengthened Entity Registration and Advertisement Management. Market supervision departments strengthen entity registration and management, and enterprise and individual business registrations must not contain terms such as "virtual currency," "virtual asset," "cryptocurrency," "crypto asset," "stablecoin," "real-world asset tokenization," or "RWA" in their names or business scopes. Market supervision departments, together with financial regulatory authorities, legally enhance the supervision of advertisements related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization, promptly investigating and handling relevant illegal advertisements.


  (IX) Continued Rectification of Virtual Currency Mining Activities. The National Development and Reform Commission, together with relevant departments, strictly controls virtual currency mining activities, continuously promotes the rectification of virtual currency mining activities. The people's governments of various provinces take overall responsibility for the rectification of "mining" within their respective administrative regions. In accordance with the requirements of the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments in the "Notice on the Rectification of Virtual Currency Mining Activities" (NDRC Energy-saving Building [2021] No. 1283) and the provisions of the "Guidance Catalog for Industrial Structure Adjustment (2024 Edition)," a comprehensive review, investigation, and closure of existing virtual currency mining projects are conducted, new mining projects are strictly prohibited, and mining machine production enterprises are strictly prohibited from providing mining machine sales and other services within the country.


  (X) Severe Crackdown on Related Illegal Financial Activities. Upon discovering clues to illegal financial activities related to virtual currency and the tokenization of real-world assets, local financial regulatory authorities, branches of the State Council's financial regulatory authorities, and other relevant departments promptly investigate, determine, and properly handle the issues in accordance with the law, and seriously hold the relevant entities and individuals legally responsible. Those suspected of crimes are transferred to the judicial authorities for processing according to the law.


 (XI) Severe Crackdown on Related Illegal and Criminal Activities. The Ministry of Public Security, the People's Bank of China, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, as well as judicial and procuratorial organs, in accordance with their respective responsibilities, rigorously crack down on illegal and criminal activities related to virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, such as fraud, money laundering, illegal business operations, pyramid schemes, illegal fundraising, and other illegal and criminal activities carried out under the guise of virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, etc.


  (XII) Strengthen Industry Self-discipline. Relevant industry associations should enhance membership management and policy advocacy, based on their own responsibilities, advocate and urge member units to resist illegal financial activities related to virtual currency and the tokenization of real-world assets. Member units that violate regulatory policies and industry self-discipline rules are to be disciplined in accordance with relevant self-regulatory management regulations. By leveraging various industry infrastructure, conduct risk monitoring related to virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, and promptly transfer issue clues to relevant departments.


  IV. Strict Supervision of Domestic Entities Engaging in Overseas Business Activities


(XIII) Without the approval of relevant departments in accordance with the law and regulations, domestic entities and foreign entities controlled by them may not issue virtual currency overseas.


  (XIV) Domestic entities engaging directly or indirectly in overseas external debt-based tokenization of real-world assets, or conducting asset securitization activities abroad based on domestic ownership rights, income rights, etc. (hereinafter referred to as domestic equity), should be strictly regulated in accordance with the principles of "same business, same risk, same rules." The National Development and Reform Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other relevant departments regulate it according to their respective responsibilities. For other forms of overseas real-world asset tokenization activities based on domestic equity by domestic entities, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, together with relevant departments, supervise according to their division of responsibilities. Without the consent and filing of relevant departments, no unit or individual may engage in the above-mentioned business.


  (15) Overseas subsidiaries and branches of domestic financial institutions providing Real World Asset Tokenization-related services overseas shall do so legally and prudently. They shall have professional personnel and systems in place to effectively mitigate business risks, strictly implement customer onboarding, suitability management, anti-money laundering requirements, and incorporate them into the domestic financial institutions' compliance and risk management system. Intermediaries and information technology service providers offering Real World Asset Tokenization services abroad based on domestic equity or conducting Real World Asset Tokenization business in the form of overseas debt for domestic entities directly or indirectly venturing abroad must strictly comply with relevant laws and regulations. They should establish and improve relevant compliance and internal control systems in accordance with relevant normative requirements, strengthen business and risk control, and report the business developments to the relevant regulatory authorities for approval or filing.


  V. Strengthen Organizational Implementation


  (16) Strengthen organizational leadership and overall coordination. All departments and regions should attach great importance to the prevention of risks related to virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization, strengthen organizational leadership, clarify work responsibilities, form a long-term effective working mechanism with centralized coordination, local implementation, and shared responsibilities, maintain high pressure, dynamically monitor risks, effectively prevent and mitigate risks in an orderly and efficient manner, legally protect the property security of the people, and make every effort to maintain economic and financial order and social stability.


  (17) Widely carry out publicity and education. All departments, regions, and industry associations should make full use of various media and other communication channels to disseminate information through legal and policy interpretation, analysis of typical cases, and education on investment risks, etc. They should promote the illegality and harm of virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization-related businesses and their manifestations, fully alert to potential risks and hidden dangers, and enhance public awareness and identification capabilities for risk prevention.


  VI. Legal Responsibility


  (18) Engaging in illegal financial activities related to virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization in violation of this notice, as well as providing services for virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization-related businesses, shall be punished in accordance with relevant regulations. If it constitutes a crime, criminal liability shall be pursued according to the law. For domestic entities and individuals who knowingly or should have known that overseas entities illegally provided virtual currency or Real World Asset Tokenization-related services to domestic entities and still assisted them, relevant responsibilities shall be pursued according to the law. If it constitutes a crime, criminal liability shall be pursued according to the law.


  (19) If any unit or individual invests in virtual currencies, Real World Asset Tokens, and related financial products against public order and good customs, the relevant civil legal actions shall be invalid, and any resulting losses shall be borne by them. If there are suspicions of disrupting financial order and jeopardizing financial security, the relevant departments shall deal with them according to the law.


  This notice shall enter into force upon the date of its issuance. The People's Bank of China and ten other departments' "Notice on Further Preventing and Dealing with the Risks of Virtual Currency Trading Speculation" (Yinfa [2021] No. 237) is hereby repealed.


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