Disclaimer: Why Lighter is Severely Underestimated

By: blockbeats|2025/12/17 18:00:03
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Original Title: The Case of Lighter
Original Author: Playrisk
Original Translation: SpecialistXBT, BlockBeats

TL;DR

Compared to other Perp Dexs, Lighter's valuation is a steal, not to mention when compared to multiples during the peak of a bull market.

Currently, most of the circulating chips are priced by early users of Hyperliquid. These people got rich by holding Perp Dex's tokens, and even for risk hedging, they would buy Lighter. 99% of VCs have missed out on $HYPE and are in urgent need of the next target.

Narrative occupies the majority of the token's valuation, and Lighter's signal is already very clear.

Today's token price is supported solely by "programmatic" spot buying (such as automatic buybacks). Unless the spot buying is strong enough, the token is unlikely to rise in value (refer to the lessons of ETHFI, GRASS). Currently, only the Perp Dex track has truly implemented this logic.

Lighter's Vlad has a close relationship with Robinhood's Vlad, and Robinhood is likely to direct orders to Lighter in the future.

The 0 fee rate business model is highly favored by users.

Whales all need privacy; no one wants their liquidation price to be watched by the whole network.

Valuation Analysis

From the current OTC market perspective, Lighter's Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) is around 3.3 billion USD. Assuming an airdrop ratio of 30%, its initial circulating market cap is approximately 750 million USD. For comparison, Hyperliquid's circulating market cap is as high as 8.2 billion USD.

Looking at revenue alone (Note: Lighter's revenue has not been market-validated for a year like Hyperliquid), by simply annualizing based on the revenue of the past month, Lighter's annualized revenue could reach 250 million USD. This means that Lighter's Price-to-Sales ratio (market cap/revenue) multiple is only 2.5 times, far lower than Hyperliquid's 7.6 times, ridiculously cheap.

Take a closer look at a closer competitor, Aster. Aster's TVL is comparable to Lighter's, with an Open Interest (OI) of about one billion more than Lighter's. However, its FDV reaches up to 7 billion, with a circulating market cap of around 2 billion. In contrast, Lighter's trading price is only one-third of Aster's.

Ask yourself: Even considering Aster's Binance/CZ halo, is Lighter's price at only one-third of Aster's reasonable? In my opinion, based on the current valuation, Lighter is severely undervalued fundamentally.

Looking at the fundamentals, you will find that only two tokens can sustain a high revenue multiple in the long run: Hyperliquid and DYDX. Why? The former has the most transparent buyback mechanism, while the latter has stood the test of time in this industry. Unlike other listed Perp Dexes, Lighter does not have a top-tier influencer like CZ or liquidity support from Coinbase to artificially pump, nor does it face the dilemma of "lack of real users" like other competitors.

Additionally, it is important to note that the over-the-counter market (SOTC) usually carries a discount because buyers bear default risks (if the opening price is twice as high as the OTC transaction price, sellers have an incentive to default), which causes people not to offer high prices in OTC but to wait and see the actual listing performance.

I choose to annualize based on the revenue of the last month for a reason: in the crypto world, everyone only has a 7-second memory, and no one has the ability to see clearly or trade for the future a year later. Therefore, only the immediate revenue of the last month is the most important indicator.

Disclaimer: Why Lighter is Severely Underestimated

Funds Flow

The reason why Hyperliquid was able to break out on an independent trend is that many early LPs did not believe in its model. This led to those sharp-sighted retail investors sweeping all the chips and then selling to the belated buyers at a high price.

In conversations with a large number of VCs over the past few months, I have noticed a phenomenon: except for Paradigm, almost everyone missed out on Hyperliquid. This means that every VC with a liquidity fund (the vast majority of them do) will try to catch the next $HYPE.

Who is the next Hyperliquid? It's quite simple; just do a "pattern matching" between Lighter's storyline and Hyperliquid, and you'll find it's Lighter.

Looking at the token distribution, you will find: the large holders of Hyperliquid have also become the large holders and deep users of Lighter. The secret to wealth for this group of people is simple: Hold

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Token Buyback

Passive spot buying is the only thing that can support the coin price. BTC has MicroStrategy's Saylor, ETH has Tom Lee, but for altcoins, the market only recognizes income buybacks. If you want to keep the price firm, you need passive buying in the form of buybacks. Hyperliquid understands this well.

Lighter is essentially a replica of Hyperliquid. Founder Vlad has made it clear that they will conduct buybacks. While you can't expect them to buy back 97% of the tokens, buying back 30% or 50% is reasonable. As long as there is an eight-figure (tens of millions) passive buy, this is attractive enough.

Note: In their $68 million financing (mainly for the insurance fund), the team has allocated some funds for token buybacks at TGE. This is similar to the early Hyperliquid's $75 million spot buy.

Deep Integration with Robinhood

Vlad Tenev (Robinhood's Vlad1) previously interned at Addepar for Vlad (Vlad2) from Lighter, and that's how they met. Robinhood is an investor in Lighter, and Vlad1 is also an advisor to Lighter.

There have been numerous rumors in the industry about using Lighter on Robinhood's chain. Lighter's goal is composability and will be integrated into Ethereum L1, ultimately achieving collateralized LLP token lending. This composability aligns with Robinhood's vision of "tokenizing everything" and putting everything on-chain.

While this is speculation, I support the argument that Robinhood will acquire a significant stake in Lighter (whether through tokens or equity). Given the similarity of their Payment for Order Flow (PFOF) models, I speculate that once Robinhood holds Lighter shares, it will redirect a significant portion of its traffic to Lighter. This will further strengthen this narrative.

RWA Trading

Although not limited to Lighter, RWA contract trading has proven to be a key early product-market fit. Data shows that Lighter's daily trading volume for all RWA products is $517 million, with an open interest (OI) of $271 million. Compared to Hyperliquid, Lighter is quickly catching up and even surpassing.

One key distinction is that Lighter's RWA service is not provided by a third party in the ecosystem, but rather self-operated. This makes coordination and onboarding of new assets smoother and faster. Additionally, Lighter's majority of trading volume comes from its FX contract, while Hyperliquid is mainly index contracts (80%). Ultimately, this will evolve into a pure competition of liquidity and order book depth to vie for users.

Hyperliquid's First True Competitor

The derivative market is growing rapidly, and despite a loyal fan base on Twitter shouting "Hyperliquid is the only one," the market is large enough to accommodate multiple top players. Robinhood has also opened up futures trading, as futures have a strong foothold in the crypto space and are indeed a superior trading method compared to options.

Solving the full collateral issue is the most critical challenge that Hyperliquid has outsourced to Flood and Fullstack Trade. To my knowledge, Flood is at least 6 months away from solving this problem. Lighter's larger team is more likely to tackle this challenge. Yes, Hyperliquid has a first-mover advantage, but if Lighter can swiftly integrate this feature, they may well take a slice of their cake.

Privacy

While Hyperliquid has built a cult-like community culture, its architecture has a fatal flaw for whales: complete transparency.

On Hyperliquid, leaderboards and on-chain data broadcast every large position, entry price, and liquidation point to the world. This turns trading into a PvP arena where predatory players like me can specifically hunt whales' liquidation orders and front-run large funds. Leveraging liquidation data to predict short-term tops and bottoms is traceable, and I know many traders continue to profit through this strategy.

Lighter positions itself as the antidote to this risk. By obfuscating trading flows and shielding position data, its operation is more akin to an on-chain dark pool rather than a standard DEX. For "smart money" and large funds, anonymity is not just a feature—it is a necessity. If you have a significant amount of funds, you absolutely cannot trade in a place that directly exposes your hand and liquidation point to the counterparty. As DeFi matures, venues that can protect user alpha will inevitably attract the largest flows of funds.

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China's Central Bank and Eight Other Departments' Latest Regulatory Focus: Key Attention to RWA Tokenized Asset Risk


Foreword: Today, the People's Bank of China's website published the "Notice of the People's Bank of China, National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Public Security, State Administration for Market Regulation, China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, China Securities Regulatory Commission, State Administration of Foreign Exchange on Further Preventing and Dealing with Risks Related to Virtual Currency and Others (Yinfa [2026] No. 42)", the latest regulatory requirements from the eight departments including the central bank, which are basically consistent with the regulatory requirements of recent years. The main focus of the regulation is on speculative activities such as virtual currency trading, exchanges, ICOs, overseas platform services, and this time, regulatory oversight of RWA has been added, explicitly prohibiting RWA tokenization, stablecoins (especially those pegged to the RMB). The following is the full text:


To the people's governments of all provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities directly under the Central Government, the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps:


  Recently, there have been speculative activities related to virtual currency and Real-World Assets (RWA) tokenization, disrupting the economic and financial order and jeopardizing the property security of the people. In order to further prevent and address the risks related to virtual currency and Real-World Assets tokenization, effectively safeguard national security and social stability, in accordance with the "Law of the People's Republic of China on the People's Bank of China," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Commercial Banks," "Securities Law of the People's Republic of China," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Securities Investment Funds," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Futures and Derivatives," "Cybersecurity Law of the People's Republic of China," "Regulations of the People's Republic of China on the Administration of Renminbi," "Regulations on Prevention and Disposal of Illegal Fundraising," "Regulations of the People's Republic of China on Foreign Exchange Administration," "Telecommunications Regulations of the People's Republic of China," and other provisions, after reaching consensus with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, and with the approval of the State Council, the relevant matters are notified as follows:


  I. Clarify the essential attributes of virtual currency, Real-World Assets tokenization, and related business activities


  (I) Virtual currency does not possess the legal status equivalent to fiat currency. Virtual currencies such as Bitcoin, Ether, Tether, etc., have the main characteristics of being issued by non-monetary authorities, using encryption technology and distributed ledger or similar technology, existing in digital form, etc. They do not have legal tender status, should not and cannot be circulated and used as currency in the market.


  The business activities related to virtual currency are classified as illegal financial activities. The exchange of fiat currency and virtual currency within the territory, exchange of virtual currencies, acting as a central counterparty in buying and selling virtual currencies, providing information intermediary and pricing services for virtual currency transactions, token issuance financing, and trading of virtual currency-related financial products, etc., fall under illegal financial activities, such as suspected illegal issuance of token vouchers, unauthorized public issuance of securities, illegal operation of securities and futures business, illegal fundraising, etc., are strictly prohibited across the board and resolutely banned in accordance with the law. Overseas entities and individuals are not allowed to provide virtual currency-related services to domestic entities in any form.


  A stablecoin pegged to a fiat currency indirectly fulfills some functions of the fiat currency in circulation. Without the consent of relevant authorities in accordance with the law and regulations, any domestic or foreign entity or individual is not allowed to issue a RMB-pegged stablecoin overseas.


(II)Tokenization of Real-World Assets refers to the use of encryption technology and distributed ledger or similar technologies to transform ownership rights, income rights, etc., of assets into tokens (tokens) or other interests or bond certificates with token (token) characteristics, and carry out issuance and trading activities.


  Engaging in the tokenization of real-world assets domestically, as well as providing related intermediary, information technology services, etc., which are suspected of illegal issuance of token vouchers, unauthorized public offering of securities, illegal operation of securities and futures business, illegal fundraising, and other illegal financial activities, shall be prohibited; except for relevant business activities carried out with the approval of the competent authorities in accordance with the law and regulations and relying on specific financial infrastructures. Overseas entities and individuals are not allowed to illegally provide services related to the tokenization of real-world assets to domestic entities in any form.


  II. Sound Work Mechanism


  (III) Inter-agency Coordination. The People's Bank of China, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other departments, will improve the work mechanism, strengthen coordination with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, coordinate efforts, and overall guide regions to carry out risk prevention and disposal of virtual currency-related illegal financial activities.


  The China Securities Regulatory Commission, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, the People's Bank of China, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other departments, will improve the work mechanism, strengthen coordination with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, coordinate efforts, and overall guide regions to carry out risk prevention and disposal of illegal financial activities related to the tokenization of real-world assets.


  (IV) Strengthening Local Implementation. The people's governments at the provincial level are overall responsible for the prevention and disposal of risks related to virtual currencies and the tokenization of real-world assets in their respective administrative regions. The specific leading department is the local financial regulatory department, with participation from branches and dispatched institutions of the State Council's financial regulatory department, telecommunications regulators, public security, market supervision, and other departments, in coordination with cyberspace departments, courts, and procuratorates, to improve the normalization of the work mechanism, effectively connect with the relevant work mechanisms of central departments, form a cooperative and coordinated working pattern between central and local governments, effectively prevent and properly handle risks related to virtual currencies and the tokenization of real-world assets, and maintain economic and financial order and social stability.


  III. Strengthened Risk Monitoring, Prevention, and Disposal


  (5) Enhanced Risk Monitoring. The People's Bank of China, China Securities Regulatory Commission, National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Public Security, State Administration of Foreign Exchange, Cyberspace Administration of China, and other departments continue to improve monitoring techniques and system support, enhance cross-departmental data analysis and sharing, establish sound information sharing and cross-validation mechanisms, promptly grasp the risk situation of activities related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization. Local governments at all levels give full play to the role of local monitoring and early warning mechanisms. Local financial regulatory authorities, together with branches and agencies of the State Council's financial regulatory authorities, as well as departments of cyberspace and public security, ensure effective connection between online monitoring, offline investigation, and fund tracking, efficiently and accurately identify activities related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization, promptly share risk information, improve early warning information dissemination, verification, and rapid response mechanisms.


  (6) Strengthened Oversight of Financial Institutions, Intermediaries, and Technology Service Providers. Financial institutions (including non-bank payment institutions) are prohibited from providing account opening, fund transfer, and clearing services for virtual currency-related business activities, issuing and selling financial products related to virtual currency, including virtual currency and related financial products in the scope of collateral, conducting insurance business related to virtual currency, or including virtual currency in the scope of insurance liability. Financial institutions (including non-bank payment institutions) are prohibited from providing custody, clearing, and settlement services for unauthorized real-world asset tokenization-related business and related financial products. Relevant intermediary institutions and information technology service providers are prohibited from providing intermediary, technical, or other services for unauthorized real-world asset tokenization-related businesses and related financial products.


  (7) Enhanced Management of Internet Information Content and Access. Internet enterprises are prohibited from providing online business venues, commercial displays, marketing, advertising, or paid traffic diversion services for virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization-related business activities. Upon discovering clues of illegal activities, they should promptly report to relevant departments and provide technical support and assistance for related investigations and inquiries. Based on the clues transferred by the financial regulatory authorities, the cyberspace administration, telecommunications authorities, and public security departments should promptly close and deal with websites, mobile applications (including mini-programs), and public accounts engaged in virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization-related business activities in accordance with the law.


  (8) Strengthened Entity Registration and Advertisement Management. Market supervision departments strengthen entity registration and management, and enterprise and individual business registrations must not contain terms such as "virtual currency," "virtual asset," "cryptocurrency," "crypto asset," "stablecoin," "real-world asset tokenization," or "RWA" in their names or business scopes. Market supervision departments, together with financial regulatory authorities, legally enhance the supervision of advertisements related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization, promptly investigating and handling relevant illegal advertisements.


  (IX) Continued Rectification of Virtual Currency Mining Activities. The National Development and Reform Commission, together with relevant departments, strictly controls virtual currency mining activities, continuously promotes the rectification of virtual currency mining activities. The people's governments of various provinces take overall responsibility for the rectification of "mining" within their respective administrative regions. In accordance with the requirements of the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments in the "Notice on the Rectification of Virtual Currency Mining Activities" (NDRC Energy-saving Building [2021] No. 1283) and the provisions of the "Guidance Catalog for Industrial Structure Adjustment (2024 Edition)," a comprehensive review, investigation, and closure of existing virtual currency mining projects are conducted, new mining projects are strictly prohibited, and mining machine production enterprises are strictly prohibited from providing mining machine sales and other services within the country.


  (X) Severe Crackdown on Related Illegal Financial Activities. Upon discovering clues to illegal financial activities related to virtual currency and the tokenization of real-world assets, local financial regulatory authorities, branches of the State Council's financial regulatory authorities, and other relevant departments promptly investigate, determine, and properly handle the issues in accordance with the law, and seriously hold the relevant entities and individuals legally responsible. Those suspected of crimes are transferred to the judicial authorities for processing according to the law.


 (XI) Severe Crackdown on Related Illegal and Criminal Activities. The Ministry of Public Security, the People's Bank of China, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, as well as judicial and procuratorial organs, in accordance with their respective responsibilities, rigorously crack down on illegal and criminal activities related to virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, such as fraud, money laundering, illegal business operations, pyramid schemes, illegal fundraising, and other illegal and criminal activities carried out under the guise of virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, etc.


  (XII) Strengthen Industry Self-discipline. Relevant industry associations should enhance membership management and policy advocacy, based on their own responsibilities, advocate and urge member units to resist illegal financial activities related to virtual currency and the tokenization of real-world assets. Member units that violate regulatory policies and industry self-discipline rules are to be disciplined in accordance with relevant self-regulatory management regulations. By leveraging various industry infrastructure, conduct risk monitoring related to virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, and promptly transfer issue clues to relevant departments.


  IV. Strict Supervision of Domestic Entities Engaging in Overseas Business Activities


(XIII) Without the approval of relevant departments in accordance with the law and regulations, domestic entities and foreign entities controlled by them may not issue virtual currency overseas.


  (XIV) Domestic entities engaging directly or indirectly in overseas external debt-based tokenization of real-world assets, or conducting asset securitization activities abroad based on domestic ownership rights, income rights, etc. (hereinafter referred to as domestic equity), should be strictly regulated in accordance with the principles of "same business, same risk, same rules." The National Development and Reform Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other relevant departments regulate it according to their respective responsibilities. For other forms of overseas real-world asset tokenization activities based on domestic equity by domestic entities, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, together with relevant departments, supervise according to their division of responsibilities. Without the consent and filing of relevant departments, no unit or individual may engage in the above-mentioned business.


  (15) Overseas subsidiaries and branches of domestic financial institutions providing Real World Asset Tokenization-related services overseas shall do so legally and prudently. They shall have professional personnel and systems in place to effectively mitigate business risks, strictly implement customer onboarding, suitability management, anti-money laundering requirements, and incorporate them into the domestic financial institutions' compliance and risk management system. Intermediaries and information technology service providers offering Real World Asset Tokenization services abroad based on domestic equity or conducting Real World Asset Tokenization business in the form of overseas debt for domestic entities directly or indirectly venturing abroad must strictly comply with relevant laws and regulations. They should establish and improve relevant compliance and internal control systems in accordance with relevant normative requirements, strengthen business and risk control, and report the business developments to the relevant regulatory authorities for approval or filing.


  V. Strengthen Organizational Implementation


  (16) Strengthen organizational leadership and overall coordination. All departments and regions should attach great importance to the prevention of risks related to virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization, strengthen organizational leadership, clarify work responsibilities, form a long-term effective working mechanism with centralized coordination, local implementation, and shared responsibilities, maintain high pressure, dynamically monitor risks, effectively prevent and mitigate risks in an orderly and efficient manner, legally protect the property security of the people, and make every effort to maintain economic and financial order and social stability.


  (17) Widely carry out publicity and education. All departments, regions, and industry associations should make full use of various media and other communication channels to disseminate information through legal and policy interpretation, analysis of typical cases, and education on investment risks, etc. They should promote the illegality and harm of virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization-related businesses and their manifestations, fully alert to potential risks and hidden dangers, and enhance public awareness and identification capabilities for risk prevention.


  VI. Legal Responsibility


  (18) Engaging in illegal financial activities related to virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization in violation of this notice, as well as providing services for virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization-related businesses, shall be punished in accordance with relevant regulations. If it constitutes a crime, criminal liability shall be pursued according to the law. For domestic entities and individuals who knowingly or should have known that overseas entities illegally provided virtual currency or Real World Asset Tokenization-related services to domestic entities and still assisted them, relevant responsibilities shall be pursued according to the law. If it constitutes a crime, criminal liability shall be pursued according to the law.


  (19) If any unit or individual invests in virtual currencies, Real World Asset Tokens, and related financial products against public order and good customs, the relevant civil legal actions shall be invalid, and any resulting losses shall be borne by them. If there are suspicions of disrupting financial order and jeopardizing financial security, the relevant departments shall deal with them according to the law.


  This notice shall enter into force upon the date of its issuance. The People's Bank of China and ten other departments' "Notice on Further Preventing and Dealing with the Risks of Virtual Currency Trading Speculation" (Yinfa [2021] No. 237) is hereby repealed.


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