Coinbase to Acquire The Clearing Company in Prediction Markets Push

By: crypto insight|2025/12/23 00:30:10
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Key Takeaways

  • Coinbase is set to acquire The Clearing Company, a prediction markets startup, to expand its product range and reinforce its “Everything Exchange” strategy.
  • The acquisition highlights Coinbase’s intent to tap into prediction markets, a sector with growing user engagement and regulatory clarity.
  • The Clearing Company has a robust foundation, with significant backing from veteran investors and a skilled team.
  • Prediction markets may offer a more tax-efficient alternative to sportsbooks and casinos due to their structure and regulatory treatment.

WEEX Crypto News, 2025-12-22 16:15:40

Introduction

Coinbase has embarked on a significant expansion of its investment product lineup by acquiring The Clearing Company, an innovative on-chain prediction markets startup. This acquisition marks a crucial step towards Coinbase’s “Everything Exchange” vision, which aims to provide investors a unified platform to trade various assets, from cryptocurrencies to equities and beyond. The deal is set to finalize in January, though the financial terms remain undisclosed. Founded only earlier this year, The Clearing Company has quickly captured attention and investment, showcasing the dynamic growth potential inherent in the prediction markets sector.

The Vision Behind the Acquisition

The Clearing Company isn’t your typical startup; it represents the forefront of a burgeoning sector poised to revolutionize how people engage with market predictions. The company was conceived by seasoned veterans from the cryptocurrency, prediction markets, and cloud infrastructure industries. Led by Toni Gemayel, who has impressive credentials from past roles at Polymarket and Kalshi, the company’s team is fortified with expertise from leading enterprises such as 0x, Dune, and Coinbase itself. By integrating The Clearing Company’s innovative platform, Coinbase is strengthening its infrastructure to support the future of diversified trading.

The strategic acquisition of The Clearing Company is aligned with Coinbase’s broader ambition to operate as an “Everything Exchange.” This ambition isn’t just about bolstering its product lineup but also about embedding itself into the rapidly evolving fabric of financial interactions. Prediction markets, which allow trading on various outcomes — from political results to sports events — epitomize this emerging market diversity. By venturing into these markets, Coinbase aims to leverage its cryptocurrency infrastructure to support increasingly mainstream financial instruments.

Prediction Markets: A Strategic Growth Opportunity

Coinbase’s focus on prediction markets stems from a strategic analysis that identifies this sector as a pivotal growth opportunity through 2026. Unlike traditional investments, prediction markets offer contracts akin to derivatives, which creates potential tax efficiencies when contrasted with conventional gambling platforms. This structural edge becomes particularly relevant in light of recent legislative developments. A notable tax provision in former US President Donald Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” proposes reducing the deductibility of gambling losses from winnings to 90%. Such a change could inadvertently result in “phantom income” taxation, highlighting prediction markets as a potentially more favorable alternative under certain regulatory conditions.

The interest in prediction markets is fueled by their ability to merge financial speculation with real-world events, offering unique avenues for investment and speculation. Coinbase’s analysis emphasizes how real-world outcomes create financially significant variables, making these markets not only engaging but increasingly viable and strategic investment targets. The existing markets are already home to prominent players such as the decentralized Polymarket, built on the Polygon network, and Kalshi, which operates under U.S. regulatory oversight — both indicative of the sector’s promising future.

Market Dynamics and Current Players

The landscape of prediction markets is diverse, with significant entities already established within the space. Polymarket stands out as a decentralized platform, enabling users to trade on outcomes across political, economic, and cultural spectrums using blockchain contracts. It boasts a formidable presence on the Polygon network, exemplifying how decentralized finance principles can be applied to prediction markets.

Another key player is Kalshi, a centralized entity governed by U.S. regulations. Kalshi’s operational approach underscores the balance between innovation and compliance, illustrating the dual pressures of rapid technological advancement and necessary regulatory oversight. Publicly traded companies like DraftKings are also venturing into this space, planning to integrate crypto-linked contracts into their offerings, signifying the cross-pollination of traditional and digital wagering systems.

As the sector aligns with mainstream financial practices, significant interest from a broad array of companies is expected. This includes newcomers like Bitnomial Clearinghouse along with established cryptocurrency exchanges like Gemini, all of which are signaling intent to expand into or further entrench themselves in this dynamic sphere.

The Clearing Company’s Regulatory Standpoint

In a significant move towards mainstream integration, The Clearing Company has applied to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to become a Derivatives Clearing Organization. This step signifies the company’s commitment to regulatory compliance and its ambition to embed prediction markets within the traditional financial structure. By gaining this status, The Clearing Company could provide clearer pathways for institutional adoption and greater investor confidence in prediction markets.

This initiative aligns with the potential for regulatory updates that recognize and categorize prediction markets in a manner analogous to traditional derivatives. The broader implication is a move towards enhanced acceptance and integration of novel market types within existing financial and legal frameworks. Such advancements underscore the trend of cryptocurrency infrastructure serving as a backbone for increasingly diverse and sophisticated market types.

Aligning with Broader Market Strategies

Coinbase’s strategic pivot into prediction markets can be seen as part of a broader alignment with market trends and user demands. As noted in Coinbase’s latest market outlook report, initiatives are increasingly focused on sectors with robust engagement, clear regulatory tracks, and viable real-world applications. Aligning with these dimensions, prediction markets offer a platform where finance meets real-world outcomes, paralleling the global drive towards more integrated, real-time financial applications.

The decision to acquire The Clearing Company not only showcases Coinbase’s enthusiasm for this potential but also reflects an industry-wide gravitation towards greater diversity in financial products. The melding of prediction markets with traditional trading equips exchanges like Coinbase with an enriched portfolio, poised to satisfy a broader array of investor preferences.

Conclusion

Coinbase’s acquisition of The Clearing Company marks a pivotal moment in the company’s expansion beyond cryptocurrency into prediction markets. As Coinbase positions itself as a comprehensive trading platform, this venture embodies the shifting sands of financial markets where technology and regulatory landscapes converge. By strategically acquiring a pioneering startup, Coinbase not only widens its market reach but also strengthens its infrastructure for futures markets.

The acquisition reflects a broader narrative about how traditional and digital finance are intertwining rapidly, driven by user-centric innovations. As prediction markets potentially offer more tax-efficient channels compared to traditional gambling, their rise is emblematic of financial shifts driven by regulatory and market forces. With Coinbase leading the charge, the stage is set for a dynamic evolution of how markets are understood and interacted with.

FAQ

What is Coinbase’s Everything Exchange?

Coinbase’s Everything Exchange is a unified platform aimed at allowing users to trade multiple asset classes, such as crypto and equities, under one umbrella. It explores the integration of these varied markets to cater to diverse investment interests.

Why are prediction markets important for Coinbase?

Prediction markets represent a growing sector with significant engagement and potential tax advantages. They allow for trading based on real-world events, making them a lucrative avenue for both speculative and strategic investments.

How does The Clearing Company fit into Coinbase’s strategy?

The acquisition of The Clearing Company allows Coinbase to expand its reach into the prediction markets sector, ensuring it captures emerging opportunities linked to event-based trading, regulatory advancements, and enhanced financial instruments.

What makes prediction markets tax-efficient?

Prediction markets use contracts similar to derivatives, which could lead to more favorable tax treatment than traditional gambling as regulatory views evolve. Adjustments to gambling tax provisions can make prediction markets a more appealing option.

Who are the key players in the prediction markets?

The prediction markets are currently dominated by players like Polymarket, Kalshi, and DraftKings. These platforms operate on both decentralized and centralized architectures, contributing to the sector’s growth and diversity.

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China's Central Bank and Eight Other Departments' Latest Regulatory Focus: Key Attention to RWA Tokenized Asset Risk


Foreword: Today, the People's Bank of China's website published the "Notice of the People's Bank of China, National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Public Security, State Administration for Market Regulation, China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, China Securities Regulatory Commission, State Administration of Foreign Exchange on Further Preventing and Dealing with Risks Related to Virtual Currency and Others (Yinfa [2026] No. 42)", the latest regulatory requirements from the eight departments including the central bank, which are basically consistent with the regulatory requirements of recent years. The main focus of the regulation is on speculative activities such as virtual currency trading, exchanges, ICOs, overseas platform services, and this time, regulatory oversight of RWA has been added, explicitly prohibiting RWA tokenization, stablecoins (especially those pegged to the RMB). The following is the full text:


To the people's governments of all provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities directly under the Central Government, the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps:


  Recently, there have been speculative activities related to virtual currency and Real-World Assets (RWA) tokenization, disrupting the economic and financial order and jeopardizing the property security of the people. In order to further prevent and address the risks related to virtual currency and Real-World Assets tokenization, effectively safeguard national security and social stability, in accordance with the "Law of the People's Republic of China on the People's Bank of China," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Commercial Banks," "Securities Law of the People's Republic of China," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Securities Investment Funds," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Futures and Derivatives," "Cybersecurity Law of the People's Republic of China," "Regulations of the People's Republic of China on the Administration of Renminbi," "Regulations on Prevention and Disposal of Illegal Fundraising," "Regulations of the People's Republic of China on Foreign Exchange Administration," "Telecommunications Regulations of the People's Republic of China," and other provisions, after reaching consensus with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, and with the approval of the State Council, the relevant matters are notified as follows:


  I. Clarify the essential attributes of virtual currency, Real-World Assets tokenization, and related business activities


  (I) Virtual currency does not possess the legal status equivalent to fiat currency. Virtual currencies such as Bitcoin, Ether, Tether, etc., have the main characteristics of being issued by non-monetary authorities, using encryption technology and distributed ledger or similar technology, existing in digital form, etc. They do not have legal tender status, should not and cannot be circulated and used as currency in the market.


  The business activities related to virtual currency are classified as illegal financial activities. The exchange of fiat currency and virtual currency within the territory, exchange of virtual currencies, acting as a central counterparty in buying and selling virtual currencies, providing information intermediary and pricing services for virtual currency transactions, token issuance financing, and trading of virtual currency-related financial products, etc., fall under illegal financial activities, such as suspected illegal issuance of token vouchers, unauthorized public issuance of securities, illegal operation of securities and futures business, illegal fundraising, etc., are strictly prohibited across the board and resolutely banned in accordance with the law. Overseas entities and individuals are not allowed to provide virtual currency-related services to domestic entities in any form.


  A stablecoin pegged to a fiat currency indirectly fulfills some functions of the fiat currency in circulation. Without the consent of relevant authorities in accordance with the law and regulations, any domestic or foreign entity or individual is not allowed to issue a RMB-pegged stablecoin overseas.


(II)Tokenization of Real-World Assets refers to the use of encryption technology and distributed ledger or similar technologies to transform ownership rights, income rights, etc., of assets into tokens (tokens) or other interests or bond certificates with token (token) characteristics, and carry out issuance and trading activities.


  Engaging in the tokenization of real-world assets domestically, as well as providing related intermediary, information technology services, etc., which are suspected of illegal issuance of token vouchers, unauthorized public offering of securities, illegal operation of securities and futures business, illegal fundraising, and other illegal financial activities, shall be prohibited; except for relevant business activities carried out with the approval of the competent authorities in accordance with the law and regulations and relying on specific financial infrastructures. Overseas entities and individuals are not allowed to illegally provide services related to the tokenization of real-world assets to domestic entities in any form.


  II. Sound Work Mechanism


  (III) Inter-agency Coordination. The People's Bank of China, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other departments, will improve the work mechanism, strengthen coordination with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, coordinate efforts, and overall guide regions to carry out risk prevention and disposal of virtual currency-related illegal financial activities.


  The China Securities Regulatory Commission, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, the People's Bank of China, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other departments, will improve the work mechanism, strengthen coordination with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, coordinate efforts, and overall guide regions to carry out risk prevention and disposal of illegal financial activities related to the tokenization of real-world assets.


  (IV) Strengthening Local Implementation. The people's governments at the provincial level are overall responsible for the prevention and disposal of risks related to virtual currencies and the tokenization of real-world assets in their respective administrative regions. The specific leading department is the local financial regulatory department, with participation from branches and dispatched institutions of the State Council's financial regulatory department, telecommunications regulators, public security, market supervision, and other departments, in coordination with cyberspace departments, courts, and procuratorates, to improve the normalization of the work mechanism, effectively connect with the relevant work mechanisms of central departments, form a cooperative and coordinated working pattern between central and local governments, effectively prevent and properly handle risks related to virtual currencies and the tokenization of real-world assets, and maintain economic and financial order and social stability.


  III. Strengthened Risk Monitoring, Prevention, and Disposal


  (5) Enhanced Risk Monitoring. The People's Bank of China, China Securities Regulatory Commission, National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Public Security, State Administration of Foreign Exchange, Cyberspace Administration of China, and other departments continue to improve monitoring techniques and system support, enhance cross-departmental data analysis and sharing, establish sound information sharing and cross-validation mechanisms, promptly grasp the risk situation of activities related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization. Local governments at all levels give full play to the role of local monitoring and early warning mechanisms. Local financial regulatory authorities, together with branches and agencies of the State Council's financial regulatory authorities, as well as departments of cyberspace and public security, ensure effective connection between online monitoring, offline investigation, and fund tracking, efficiently and accurately identify activities related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization, promptly share risk information, improve early warning information dissemination, verification, and rapid response mechanisms.


  (6) Strengthened Oversight of Financial Institutions, Intermediaries, and Technology Service Providers. Financial institutions (including non-bank payment institutions) are prohibited from providing account opening, fund transfer, and clearing services for virtual currency-related business activities, issuing and selling financial products related to virtual currency, including virtual currency and related financial products in the scope of collateral, conducting insurance business related to virtual currency, or including virtual currency in the scope of insurance liability. Financial institutions (including non-bank payment institutions) are prohibited from providing custody, clearing, and settlement services for unauthorized real-world asset tokenization-related business and related financial products. Relevant intermediary institutions and information technology service providers are prohibited from providing intermediary, technical, or other services for unauthorized real-world asset tokenization-related businesses and related financial products.


  (7) Enhanced Management of Internet Information Content and Access. Internet enterprises are prohibited from providing online business venues, commercial displays, marketing, advertising, or paid traffic diversion services for virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization-related business activities. Upon discovering clues of illegal activities, they should promptly report to relevant departments and provide technical support and assistance for related investigations and inquiries. Based on the clues transferred by the financial regulatory authorities, the cyberspace administration, telecommunications authorities, and public security departments should promptly close and deal with websites, mobile applications (including mini-programs), and public accounts engaged in virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization-related business activities in accordance with the law.


  (8) Strengthened Entity Registration and Advertisement Management. Market supervision departments strengthen entity registration and management, and enterprise and individual business registrations must not contain terms such as "virtual currency," "virtual asset," "cryptocurrency," "crypto asset," "stablecoin," "real-world asset tokenization," or "RWA" in their names or business scopes. Market supervision departments, together with financial regulatory authorities, legally enhance the supervision of advertisements related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization, promptly investigating and handling relevant illegal advertisements.


  (IX) Continued Rectification of Virtual Currency Mining Activities. The National Development and Reform Commission, together with relevant departments, strictly controls virtual currency mining activities, continuously promotes the rectification of virtual currency mining activities. The people's governments of various provinces take overall responsibility for the rectification of "mining" within their respective administrative regions. In accordance with the requirements of the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments in the "Notice on the Rectification of Virtual Currency Mining Activities" (NDRC Energy-saving Building [2021] No. 1283) and the provisions of the "Guidance Catalog for Industrial Structure Adjustment (2024 Edition)," a comprehensive review, investigation, and closure of existing virtual currency mining projects are conducted, new mining projects are strictly prohibited, and mining machine production enterprises are strictly prohibited from providing mining machine sales and other services within the country.


  (X) Severe Crackdown on Related Illegal Financial Activities. Upon discovering clues to illegal financial activities related to virtual currency and the tokenization of real-world assets, local financial regulatory authorities, branches of the State Council's financial regulatory authorities, and other relevant departments promptly investigate, determine, and properly handle the issues in accordance with the law, and seriously hold the relevant entities and individuals legally responsible. Those suspected of crimes are transferred to the judicial authorities for processing according to the law.


 (XI) Severe Crackdown on Related Illegal and Criminal Activities. The Ministry of Public Security, the People's Bank of China, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, as well as judicial and procuratorial organs, in accordance with their respective responsibilities, rigorously crack down on illegal and criminal activities related to virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, such as fraud, money laundering, illegal business operations, pyramid schemes, illegal fundraising, and other illegal and criminal activities carried out under the guise of virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, etc.


  (XII) Strengthen Industry Self-discipline. Relevant industry associations should enhance membership management and policy advocacy, based on their own responsibilities, advocate and urge member units to resist illegal financial activities related to virtual currency and the tokenization of real-world assets. Member units that violate regulatory policies and industry self-discipline rules are to be disciplined in accordance with relevant self-regulatory management regulations. By leveraging various industry infrastructure, conduct risk monitoring related to virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, and promptly transfer issue clues to relevant departments.


  IV. Strict Supervision of Domestic Entities Engaging in Overseas Business Activities


(XIII) Without the approval of relevant departments in accordance with the law and regulations, domestic entities and foreign entities controlled by them may not issue virtual currency overseas.


  (XIV) Domestic entities engaging directly or indirectly in overseas external debt-based tokenization of real-world assets, or conducting asset securitization activities abroad based on domestic ownership rights, income rights, etc. (hereinafter referred to as domestic equity), should be strictly regulated in accordance with the principles of "same business, same risk, same rules." The National Development and Reform Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other relevant departments regulate it according to their respective responsibilities. For other forms of overseas real-world asset tokenization activities based on domestic equity by domestic entities, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, together with relevant departments, supervise according to their division of responsibilities. Without the consent and filing of relevant departments, no unit or individual may engage in the above-mentioned business.


  (15) Overseas subsidiaries and branches of domestic financial institutions providing Real World Asset Tokenization-related services overseas shall do so legally and prudently. They shall have professional personnel and systems in place to effectively mitigate business risks, strictly implement customer onboarding, suitability management, anti-money laundering requirements, and incorporate them into the domestic financial institutions' compliance and risk management system. Intermediaries and information technology service providers offering Real World Asset Tokenization services abroad based on domestic equity or conducting Real World Asset Tokenization business in the form of overseas debt for domestic entities directly or indirectly venturing abroad must strictly comply with relevant laws and regulations. They should establish and improve relevant compliance and internal control systems in accordance with relevant normative requirements, strengthen business and risk control, and report the business developments to the relevant regulatory authorities for approval or filing.


  V. Strengthen Organizational Implementation


  (16) Strengthen organizational leadership and overall coordination. All departments and regions should attach great importance to the prevention of risks related to virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization, strengthen organizational leadership, clarify work responsibilities, form a long-term effective working mechanism with centralized coordination, local implementation, and shared responsibilities, maintain high pressure, dynamically monitor risks, effectively prevent and mitigate risks in an orderly and efficient manner, legally protect the property security of the people, and make every effort to maintain economic and financial order and social stability.


  (17) Widely carry out publicity and education. All departments, regions, and industry associations should make full use of various media and other communication channels to disseminate information through legal and policy interpretation, analysis of typical cases, and education on investment risks, etc. They should promote the illegality and harm of virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization-related businesses and their manifestations, fully alert to potential risks and hidden dangers, and enhance public awareness and identification capabilities for risk prevention.


  VI. Legal Responsibility


  (18) Engaging in illegal financial activities related to virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization in violation of this notice, as well as providing services for virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization-related businesses, shall be punished in accordance with relevant regulations. If it constitutes a crime, criminal liability shall be pursued according to the law. For domestic entities and individuals who knowingly or should have known that overseas entities illegally provided virtual currency or Real World Asset Tokenization-related services to domestic entities and still assisted them, relevant responsibilities shall be pursued according to the law. If it constitutes a crime, criminal liability shall be pursued according to the law.


  (19) If any unit or individual invests in virtual currencies, Real World Asset Tokens, and related financial products against public order and good customs, the relevant civil legal actions shall be invalid, and any resulting losses shall be borne by them. If there are suspicions of disrupting financial order and jeopardizing financial security, the relevant departments shall deal with them according to the law.


  This notice shall enter into force upon the date of its issuance. The People's Bank of China and ten other departments' "Notice on Further Preventing and Dealing with the Risks of Virtual Currency Trading Speculation" (Yinfa [2021] No. 237) is hereby repealed.


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